Aniak and Kalskag are under flood advisory through Saturday (May 3) afternoon as the Kuskokwin breakup front moves in the middle river.
Just hours after residents reported ice moving out in Aniak on Wednesday (April 30) evening, a large run arrived from upriver and jammed up just below the middle Kuskokwim River community.
Early the next morning, one Aniak resident posted on social media: “ice packed in as far as the eye can see.” Pictures posted a couple hours later showed some water and ice kicked up onto a road on the west end of the community, though this had receded as of the afternoon.
A roughly 15-mile run of ice remains in place above and below Aniak. Johnse Ostman, a hydrologist with the Alaska-Pacific River Forecast Center, said the community wasn’t in immediate danger as of Thursday (May 1) afternoon.
"I think there's enough pressure relief, or relief channels for water to continue to sort of stay at non-flood levels and not go over bank in Aniak. The water levels upstream are still below bank," Ostman said.
Ostman said that when the Aniak jam releases, it may get caught up again a short distance downriver.
"The two most likely places are Birch Crossing, which would affect Crow Village, and then would also probably continue to leave Aniak with a little bit of backwater ... And then the next would be Kalskag," Ostman said.
In two aerial breakup surveys of the Kuskokwim flown by the River Watch team, Ostman said the thickest, most intact ice has been observed around Kalskag. It remains to be seen whether this ice hangs around to cause problems on the middle river, or wreaks havoc on the lower river. But Ostman said low water, lack of snow melt, and sufficient relief channels could continue what has been a relatively uneventful, early breakup.
"It'll come up a little bit, but then it should just continue to push through and continue that mush-out march downriver," Ostman said. "Nothing to me looks so strong to become like a dynamic breakup at this point."
Catch daily Kuskokwim breakup updates from the River Watch team by listening to Coffee at KYUK at 8:40 a.m. Monday through Friday by tuning into 640 AM or visiting KYUK.org.
To share observations or concerns with the Alaska-Pacific River Forecast Center, email aprfc@noaa.gov or call 800-847-1739. Observations can also be shared through the Fresh Eyes on Ice Facebook group.
For emergency preparedness information, visit the State Emergency Operations Center website at ready.alaska.gov or call 907-428-7100.
