The pace of breakup remains around five days ahead of the normal schedule on the Kuskokwim River, and no flooding has so far been reported in any communities along the river.
On the evening of April 30, a resident of Aniak reported that the ice had started to move out. The median date for breakup in the middle-river hub community is May 5.
Also on April 30, the River Watch crew flew their first aerial breakup survey of the Kuskokwim, where they saw a little bit of everything, including open water, solid ice, rotten ice, chunk ice, and exposed sandbars.
Johnse Ostman, a hydrologist with the Alaska-Pacific River Forecast Center, said one of the most notable observations was the low water, especially below Kalskag.
"I’d say the lower river is the lowest I've ever seen it," Ostman said.
Ostman said there are multiple factors at play.
"The Kuskokwim went into freeze-up or went into ice at or below median flow. And then we had very little snow," Ostman said. "I'm amazed at how little snow there is, even at elevation upriver. So there's really no water running off from anywhere."
But according to Ostman, low water doesn’t necessarily mean low flood risk, as it often gives ice a better foothold to jam up. Ostman said the River Watch crew is currently monitoring an exposed sandbar just below Akiak where a 10-mile-long ice jam in 2024 left the community on the edge of their seats.
"Last year, that ice grounded there, and it sat there for a week. There's more sandbar exposed this year than there was last year at the location of the ice jam in front of Akiak," Ostman said.
Ostman said it is too early to say whether there is flood potential for Akiak this year, but that he is optimistic large stretches of weakened ice upriver will be flushed out in the coming days.
"My estimate is that once we get past Aniak, it's just going to keep marching its way down. But what I do think has the potential to produce flooding would be just the low water, and that none of the relief channels are open," Ostman said.
Further downriver where the Kuskokwim splits toward Akiachak in one direction, and Kwethluk in the other, Ostman said breakup could be just around the corner.
"I think it's just all gonna rot, probably gonna rot fairly quickly," Ostman said.
Ostman said previous predictions of breakup coming for Bethel by the weekend, and finishing up below the Johnson River as early as May 7, remain a good guess.
"I would probably say we're on the timeline that we've been on. So like, four to five days early. We continue to move downriver as long as nothing stops progress," Ostman said.
Catch daily Kuskokwim breakup updates from the River Watch team by listening to Coffee at KYUK at 8:40 a.m. Monday through Friday by tuning into 640 AM or visiting KYUK.org.
To share observations or concerns with the Alaska-Pacific River Forecast Center, email aprfc@noaa.gov or call 800-847-1739. Observations can also be shared through the Fresh Eyes on Ice Facebook group.
For emergency preparedness information, visit the State Emergency Operations Center website at ready.alaska.gov or call 907-428-7100.
Video by Dave Cannon
