The Kuskokwim River is breaking up far quicker than normal, according to a community breakup call hosted by the Alaska-Pacific River Forecast Center on April 28.
Kuskokwim breakup officially began in the upper river community of Nikolai on April 22. Just five days later, social media reports confirmed that the ice had gone out in Sleetmute and Red Devil, more than 200 miles downriver. According to Kyle Van Peursem, a hydrologist with the Alaska-Pacific River Forecast Center in Anchorage, that puts breakup around five days ahead of schedule.
"The flooding potential still remains relatively low, especially compared to the last couple years, where we saw some pretty bad floods. So more of a thermal mush-out is what we're still expecting," Van Peursem said.
No Kuskokwim communities had reported flooding as of April 28, though the day before, the middle-river community of Red Devil reported high water due to an ice jam that had developed a short distance downriver.
Crooked Creek, one of the communities that has historically seen some of the worst breakup flooding, is next in line for the ice to go out, which may happen at some point on April 29.
Around Bethel and other lower river communities, breakup is imminent, with deep overflow along the banks of both the Kuskokwim and Johnson rivers. Multiple residents, including Napaskiak resident Earl Samuelson, weighed in on the recent breakup call to suggest that travelers put away their snowmachines for the season.
"Getting on and off the river is getting to be a problem. It's time to stay home, stay put. I would say, if you're not an experienced traveler, don't even try to go out anywhere," Samuelson said.
With breakup so far progressing well ahead of schedule, the River Watch crew said it plans to fly its first aerial surveys of the river on April 30, and continue every day until breakup has played out. Van Peursem said the whole show could be over as early as May 7.
"Bethel will likely see breakup by this weekend, and then hopefully by the middle of the week, it'll be past the Johnson [River] and you guys can get out on the river," Van Peursem said.
Catch daily Kuskokwim breakup updates from the River Watch team by tuning in to Coffee at KYUK at 8:40 a.m. Monday through Friday by tuning into 640 AM or visiting KYUK.org.
To share observations or concerns with the Alaska-Pacific River Forecast Center, email aprfc@noaa.gov or call 800-847-1739. Observations can also be shared through the Fresh Eyes on Ice Facebook group.
For emergency preparedness information, visit the State Emergency Operations Center website at ready.alaska.gov or call 907-428-7100.
