A storm system already pummeling Southwest Alaska with persistent high winds is expected to become much more severe and peak sometime on the afternoon of Aug. 18, according to the National Weather Service.
A flood warning remains in effect until the evening of Aug. 19 for the lower Kuskokwim River, including the communities of Akiak, Bethel, Kasigluk, Napakiak, and Tuntutuliak.
A flood advisory is also in effect until the evening of Aug. 18 for coastal communities including Kongiganak, Kwigillingok, and Kipnuk, where water levels are expected to rise 3 to 6 feet above normal highest tide.
The most severe conditions for coastal and lower river communities are expected on the afternoon of Aug. 18. Bethel and nearby communities could see waters rise above the minor flood stage on Aug. 18. Flooding could be seen as far upriver as Tuluksak.
The storm is the second in a series of storms forecast last week to hit Southwest Alaska. The first weather system off the Bering Sea began blasting the region on Aug. 15, tapering off before the weekend.
According to National Weather Service meteorologist Tim Markle, communities that have already reported erosion and threats to infrastructure can expect more of the same.
“Places that are already starting to see impacts and erosion along the shorelines there will continue to see that through the week, the weekend, with each high tide cycle,” Markle said.
Markle said that he and his colleagues have been watching the elements come together to create a much more severe second storm. These include the tidal effects of a rare super blue moon that will reach peak illumination on Aug. 19.
“We're dealing with very persistent and strong winds, a little bit of rain, and then the surge from those southwesterly winds, on top of what is going to be a higher than normal astronomical tide,” Markle said. “All of those elements coming together is what's causing the water levels to rise, both along the coast and inland along the Kuskokwim River.”
Markle said that the region could see winds ramp up to what meteorologists consider storm-force winds.
“We've got basically a core of 50 knot winds moving all the way from Kipnuk to Bethel, and then up the river from there,” Markle said. “It's not out of the question that we could see winds of about 55 to even 60 miles per hour in some locations across the Kuskokwim Delta on Aug. 18,” Markle said.
As for the third storm forecast for the coming days, Markle said that the region will likely dodge what he said are the remnants of Typhoon Ampil.
“By late [Aug. 20] into [Aug. 21], the strongest part of this storm is going to be well out to sea, hopefully with no impacts to any of the land areas across the southwest or the western coast of Alaska,” Markle said.
The National Weather Service advises all residents to secure belongings, move items inland when possible, and be alert and prepared to take action.
Visit the Alaska-Pacific River Forecast Center website for the latest flood advisory updates, or call the 24-hour toll-free Alaska Weather Information Line at 855-937-4977.
