When a certain percentage of a population tests positive for COVID-19, deaths and hospitalizations usually follow. The Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta has passed that mark and is witnessing its grim effects. Health officials are calling on everyone to take action to slow the spread of the virus.
The tipping point is 5%, and the region has passed it. The Bethel Census Area along the Kuskokwim River now has 5.4% of people receiving COVID-19 tests testing positive for the virus. The Kusilvak Census Area along the Yukon River is much higher, at 18.8%.
When other areas of the nation reached this level, deaths and hospitalizations followed within six to 12 weeks. But in the Y-K Delta, where there is limited access to health care, that outcome could happen even sooner, according to YKHC.
“This is something that we should take note of,” said Dan Winkelman, YKHC President and CEO. “We haven't got to this point in the Y-K Delta before, regarding COVID, and it's something new and very alarming.”
Cases are climbing fast. The region has nearly three times the cases that it did before the month of October began, and already we’re seeing a preview of what is likely to happen if the number of cases keeps rising.
Here’s what happened over the weekend: An Elder from the region died from complications with COVID-19 on Oct. 17. The Elder was over 80 and the third person in the region to die from the virus. That same day, the second person in the region was hospitalized in Bethel for the virus, and YKHC announced evidence of community spread of the virus in Chevak. The day prior, on Oct. 16, it had announced community spread in Toksook Bay, raising the total number of Y-K Delta communities with community spread to four, including Bethel and Quinhagak. On Oct. 18, the Y-K Delta began having more COVID-19 cases per capita than Anchorage, which has long been considered a hot spot in the state. Also in recent days, the first person was hospitalized in Bethel for COVID-19, and another was medevaced to Anchorage for advanced care.
YKHC warns that the increasing number of cases in the region could mean that there are infected people that health authorities do not know about. That makes the virus more likely to spread, because people are unaware that they can transmit the virus. The rising cases in the Y-K Delta could not only overwhelm our regional health care, they could overwhelm the health care system statewide. It’s happened before. YKHC Chief of Staff Dr. Ellen Hodges recalls last winter, when another respiratory virus swept the region. This one was known as RSV, which mainly affects infants.
“Just the sick babies from Bethel alone overwhelmed the ICU beds for children in the entire state of Alaska,” Hodges said.
She warned that COVID cases in the region could do the same with adults.
“I think what everyone needs to realize is that this may lead to excess death,” Hodges said.
If too many people get sick at once, the health care system cannot give them the help they need to recover. If fewer people get sick at once, known as flattening the curve, then the system has more resources to help each person. Winkelman said that YKHC does not have enough personal protective equipment, like N-95 masks, to respond to a surge in cases. But there’s hope.
“If we act now, and flatten that curve, and spread those cases out over the rest of the fall,” Hodges said, “we have a chance to make a big difference.”
Hodges said that the most significant way people can slow the spread of the virus is to stop hosting or attending gatherings with people outside their immediate households, including with family and friends. Most cases in the region are transmitted when people attend large gatherings. And when you’re around people outside your immediate household, even with family members, Hodges urges everyone to wear a mask.
“A well-fitted mask that covers both your mouth and nose,” she explained. “If it's going to be a cloth mask, we'd like it to be at least two layers; three is better. And a paper surgical mask that is well fitted and formed around your nose is also really important.”
If someone does attend a large gathering, Hodges asks that person to get tested for the virus five to eight days after the gathering. To schedule a COVID-19 test, call your local village clinic or the Bethel COVID-19 hotline at 907-543-6949.
“We're sort of at a crossroads,” said Dr. Elizabeth Bates with YKHC Infection Control. “We can take this information, and turn it around, and do what we need to do to protect our community. But I think it's important to everyone to take responsibility for this, because it's going to be a long winter.”
Clarification: This story has been slightly modified to clarify that 5.4% of people in the Bethel Census Area receiving COVID-19 tests are testing positive for the virus, not 5.4% of the total area population.
