Across the Yukon-Kuskokwim (Y-K) Delta, this winter has been one of the mildest on record.
In Bethel, for example, it’s been the sixth mildest winter in 101 years of climate records, according to data from the National Weather Service.
“What's really interesting is that in 101 years of climate observations in Bethel, seven of the 10 warmest winters have occurred since 2001, and the average winter temperature has actually increased by about 10 degrees from what it was in the 1960s,” said climate specialist Rick Thoman with the University of Alaska Fairbanks. “So when the Elders say that, you know, it used to be a lot colder, we've got the western science data that is right in agreement with that.”
The average temperature in Bethel this year has been about 17 degrees Fahrenheit, which is roughly 7 degrees warmer than average for December through February.
It’s a pattern that holds up throughout the Y-K Delta. While there aren’t site-specific, long-term data for other communities on the Y-K Delta like there are from Bethel, Thoman said that for wintertime trends, Bethel is a pretty good analog for other communities throughout the region.
The winter has also seen remarkably low snowpack throughout the region, especially during the first part of the season. Thoman said that’s still the case, but communities of the lower Y-K Delta are better off than other parts of the state.
“It's still significantly below normal,” Thoman said. “We have had some pretty low snow cover winters in recent years. This year, although it's pretty low in the Y-K Delta, of course, we're doing better than other parts of Western Alaska, particularly the Bristol Bay region on up into the upper Kuskokwim Valley; places have no, or close to no snow on the ground over a large area.”
Low snowpack brings concern for early-season wildfires. The National Interagency Fire Center recently forecast an above-normal wildfire danger for much of southern Alaska through June.
But Thoman said that there’s also a potential upside to this winter’s conditions. Without the insulating effect of snow, the frozen ground may actually melt slower, delaying the climate change-driven permafrost thaw throughout the region.
“In the Y-K Delta, where permafrost is thawing pretty rapidly, maybe this gives it a little bit of extra edge here for this year. Of course the near surface ground will thaw out come the summer, but it will take some of that heat that might have gone into thawing deeper permafrost will have to go into thawing that frozen ground near the surface,” Thoman said.
In the shorter term, the National Weather Service forecasts scattered snow showers and daytime highs between the mid-20s and mid-30s Fahrenheit for Bethel and surrounding communities in the coming days.
