With dropping temperatures in recent days, Bethel Search and Rescue members say travel conditions in the region aren’t as dangerous as they were, but still urge caution for people moving between villages.
As anyone who has traveled for their turkey knows, November weather can be unpredictable. Thanksgiving 2023 was the warmest on Bethel record, with a high of 41 degrees Fahrenheit. In 2021, temperatures reached -12 degrees.
This year, climate specialist Rick Thoman said temperatures will fall somewhere in between, ranging from zero to 10 above.
“It will stay pretty breezy, though, so those wind chills will be lower,” Thoman said. “And that is going to be the rule, really, all across the [Yukon-Kuskokwim] Delta with those pretty persistent winds, at least Kwethluk down to the coast.”
Thoman said that the lower temperatures combined with wind will help river ice to thicken and could freeze the river’s remaining weak spots, especially coming out of the warmer temperatures experienced earlier this week.
“Now, of course, it'd be nice to get some snow on top of that river ice once it freezes up. That's going to not be in our cards here for this weekend, but let's get the river ice safe first,” Thoman said.
Thoman said that snow flurries could come after the holiday, though this weekend is forecast to have low precipitation. He added that weather conditions shouldn’t impact air travel over the holiday weekend, with current conditions fit for flying.
Following the holiday, the National Weather Service said that December is likely to be warm.
“After, you know, about four or five days from now, the entire state can be moving into a warmer pattern, a much warmer pattern,” said Brian Brettschneider, the senior climate scientist with the Alaska region of the National Weather Service. “And how long that lasts is an open question, but certainly the guidance is showing that it's going to be somewhere between warmer than normal to much warmer than normal.”
The Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta is known to be comparatively cooler than the rest of the state, though Brettschneider said that doesn’t exempt it from experiencing the effects of a changing climate.
“If you were to say, ‘What is next winter going to look like?’ Or ‘What is the winter in five years going to look like?’ I would say, ‘Well, I don't know, but we're warming, and you should plan on it being warmer than normal,” Brettschneider said. “And so that's kind of always our default forecast for a whole season.”
But Brettschneider said that doesn’t necessarily mean Alaska will face a warmer winter overall this year — it’s just too soon to tell.
“All scenarios are still on the table,” Brettschneider said.
