Democrat Mary Peltola increased her lead over Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan again Tuesday, as election officials counted more than 24,000 additional votes. Peltola now leads 49% to 47.2% in one of the nation’s last undecided U.S. Senate contests.
Meanwhile, Democrat Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins continues to hold a large lead in the race for governor. He now has 49.9% of the first-choice vote in the four-way race against three Republicans. If Kreiss-Tomkins edges past 50% once counting concludes Nov. 18, he would win, and the race would not require ranked choice tabulation.
His closest challenger, Republican business owner Bernadette Wilson, has 28.8%. Third-place candidate Dave Bronson, another Republican, said last week he did not see a way that a GOP candidate could win the race, but the Associated Press has yet to call a winner.
In the U.S. House race, incumbent Republican Nick Begich is still ahead of his nearest challenger, independent Bill Hill. Begich has 48.9% to Hill’s 41%. Democrat Eric Hafner, an inmate in a New York federal prison, has 7.5%.
Ballot Measure 2, which would repeal ranked choice voting and other 2020 election reforms, continues to lag. “Yes” votes trail “No” votes 53% to 47%.
The Division of Elections is scheduled to release more results Friday, but with the latest update, the Associated Press estimates 84% of votes have been counted.
The double Sullivan factor
The latest update shows Daniel J. Sullivan Jr., of Petersburg, with 4,027 votes in the Senate race. That’s about 200 votes fewer than the number that currently separates the two front-runners.
Sullivan Jr.’s candidacy dominated the final weeks of the race. The senator and his allies say Democrats recruited him to confuse voters. The Trump administration has sued to block certification if Sen. Sullivan loses but would have won reelection if votes cast for both Sullivan were counted for the incumbent. As it stands now, that threshold would not be met.
If the current order holds and no candidate gets 50%, Sullivan Jr. will be the first eliminated. The preliminary data file shows nearly 30% of his voters ranked Peltola second – far more than ranked Sen. Sullivan second. If that does not put Peltola over the 50% threshold, the next round would see third-place finisher Gerald Heikes eliminated. His rankings favor Sen. Sullivan.
On Saturday, President Donald Trump falsely claimed in a social media post that Sen. Sullivan had already won. He argued that adding Sullivan Jr.'s and Heikes’ votes to the senator’s total put him ahead. His reasoning is contrary to how Alaska’s ranked choice system and election law works.
The Associated Press and other major news organizations have yet to call Alaska’s statewide races for U.S. House, U.S. Senate and governor.
Alaska Public Media’s analysis of ranking data released by the Division of Elections so far shows that Begich and Kreiss-Tomkins have significant leads, before and after ranked choice tabulation. But Charles Stewart, a political science professor who leads MIT’s Election Lab and has served on network decision desks, said he expected most outlets would be cautious when calling races and base their decisions primarily on voters’ first choices until the Division of Elections tabulates the rankings and declares unofficial winners Nov. 18.
“My experience with the media organizations is that they're very, very conservative in this regard,” Stewart said Friday.
The Associated Press, which Alaska Public Media relies on for race calls, says it calls races only once it’s “unquestionable” that a trailing candidate can’t catch up to the leader.
This is a developing story. Check back for updates.
