The Alaska Department of Fish and Game is predicting a similar Chinook run size in the Kuskokwim as last year.
Part of that prediction is based on a recent report from the Department measuring how many Chinook returned to the Kuskokwim last summer.
The report estimates about 176,916 Chinook swam up the Kuskokwim last season. That’s the largest run since 2009 but still far less than the long-term average.
The report also found that the escapement, or the number of fish that escaped harvest to spawn, was near average.
But the report says there is considerable uncertainty in last years’ estimate, and two groups—one independent and one government led— are reviewing the models.
One reason is, there’s evidence that early season closures over the last few years have affected salmon escapement.
State biologists have found that the Chinook that arrive earliest tend to spawn the farthest upriver. So early closures could mean that upriver fish are escaping in larger numbers than expected, which could affect run estimates, if not accounted for correctly.
Lastly, the report concluded that, despite initial concerns, high water last year did not prevent most Kuskokwim weirs from conducting good escapement counts.
Even though the Chinook run size is forecasted to be similar to last year, state managers are predicting more subsistence fishing openings this summer.
